Wattching Hockey: I'm Upset

The 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs are off to an absolutely wild start. My bracket is in shambles. There is more grey here than the local bingo hall. Upsets abound as the top seed in both conferences were not only bounced from the first round but in swift and convincing fashion. As a matter of face saving I’m going to break down each first round series and determine how this swath of devastation occurred.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Columbus Blue Jackets (47-31-4) defeat Tampa Bay Lighting (62-16-4) 4-0

Went all in on the Lightning this year. Thanks Nate

What I expected to happen: Tampa after a historically great regular season in which they tied the NHL win record, rolls through a Columbus team that snuck into the very last spot in the playoffs in the season’s waning days. The Lightning had the league’s leading scorer RW Nikita Kucherov (41 goals 87 assists 128 points), two additional 40-goal scorers in C Steven Stamkos (45g 53a 98pts) and C Brayden Point (41g 51a 92pts), a 2017-18 Norris Trophy (best defenseman) winner and 2018-19 finalist in D Victor Hedman (12g 42a 54pts +24 plus/minus), and a Vezina Trophy (best goalie) finalist in G Andrei Vasilevskiy (39-10-4 W-L-OTL Record 2.40 Goals Against Average .925 save percentage). The Blue Jackets on the other hand had two talented but disgruntled Russians on the last year of their contracts openly looking to leave the cultural wasteland of Ohio for the East or West Coast as soon as humanly possible in LW Artemi Panarin (28g 59a 87pts) and G Sergei Bobrovsky (37-24-1 2.58 GAA .913 SV%). They also have a widely reviled hot head loudmouth behind the bench in head coach John Tortorella. On paper it looked like a cake walk for the Lightning.

What did happen: Columbus beat the absolute wheels off the Lightning in a 4 game sweep and left them more broken than a high schooler after their first break up:

The Lightning jumped all over the Blue Jackets just as expected taking a 3-0 lead in the 1st period of Game 1. However, the Blue Jackets stormed back to win the game 4-3 in a shocking comeback that appeared to mentally shatter Tampa for the remainder of the series. In fact, after falling behind 3-0 in that first game, the Blue Jackets outscored the Lightning 19-5 the rest of the way. Kucherov was ineffective (0 goals 2 assists with a plus/minus of -4) and got himself suspended for a crucial Game 3, Hedman was hurt, missing both Game 3 & 4 and clearly not 100% for Games 1 & 2 (0 pts, -2), and Vasilevsky was horrendous (3.82 GAA .853 SV%). For the Blue Jackets, the trade deadline acquisition C Matt Duchene paid off handsomely as he led the way with 7 pts (4g 3a), Panarin clowned the Lighting to the tune of 5 pts (2g 3a) and Bobrovsky in a major change of pace (Career 5-14 3.48 GAA .891 SV% in the playoffs prior to this season) was stellar (4-0 2.01 GAA .932 SV%).

Surprise factor: Bruce Willis was dead the whole time in The Sixth Sense. This was a surprise no one saw coming and just as Willis being a ghost has become synonymous with great twists, so too may this series become with great upsets. Columbus using the grit and grind of Tort’s vaunted trap system to push the series to 6 or 7 games would have been surprising itself, stealing the series, a fathomable shock, but domination to this extent by this severe of an underdog was jaw dropping. The Jackets will look to remain Unbreakable next round while the Lightning continue to grasp at straws to figure out what is Happening.

Boston Bruins (49-24-9) Defeat Toronto Maple Leafs (46-28-8) 4-3

Biebs is anyone who made a bracket this year

What I expected to happen: A tight division rivalry rematch of last postseason’s series that the Bruins took in 7 games with the scales tipped in the Leafs favor this time by the addition of 6 time All-Star C John Tavares (47-41-88) and continued maturation of their young guns 21 y/o C Mitch Marner (26-68-94), 21 y/o C Auston Matthews (37-36-73 in 68 games), 25 y/o D Morgan Rielly (20-52-72, +24).

What did happen:

Game 7 went about as well as Auston Matthews (Left) pregame wardrobe selection.

Boston just refuses to acknowledge its championship window should have closed years ago. The stars of this series were largely the same usual suspects the Bruins have had the last decade. 32 y/o C Patrice Bergeron (2-3-5), 30 y/o LW Brad Marchand (4-5-9) and 32 y/o G Tuuka Rask (2.32 GAA .928 SV%) led the way while also getting 21:32 per game of valuable ice time from 42 y/o Captain D Zdeno Chara. About that added maturity thing I mentioned earlier for the Leafs, two-time 30-goal scorer C Nazim Kadri who is 28 and should know better, got himself suspended in Game 2 for the rest of the series due to a vicious cheap shot. This suspension cost the Leafs precious depth and left them behind the eight ball in a back and forth series decided in 5-1 Game 7 Bruins victory led by 4 goals from Boston’s 3rd and 4th line.

Surprise factor: Darth Vader is Luke Skywalker’s father. It’s such a staple of culture that you know it’s coming so you shouldn’t be so surprised but it still stings a little. While fellow dominate franchises of the early 2010’s the Chicago Blackhawks and Los Angeles Kings appear to have faded from the scene the Bruins just keep showing up. Just as Vader seized power following the death of most Jedi, the aging core of the Bruins will look to make more noise in a wide open Eastern Conference culled of many of its top contenders.

New York Islanders (48-27-7) Defeat Pittsburgh Penguins (44-26-12) 4-0

What I expected to happen: The clock to strike midnight on the Islanders Cinderella season and them to turn back into a pumpkin. This past offseason the Islanders best player/former captain John Tavares and his 37 goals and 47 assists in 2017-18 abandoned Long Island for the thought to be greener pastures of Toronto. With a roster that already missed the last two playoffs and little added in terms of on ice talent to offset the loss of Tavares, The Islanders were predicted by most to more likely sniff the top of the draft than the playoffs. New head coach Barry Trotz fresh off his Stanley Cup win with the Washington Capitals however coaxed a 23 point improvement out of the team good for a 2nd place finish in the Metro Division. Despite this feel good story the Pittsburgh Penguins looked like the perfect team to squash these frisky up and comers. Pittsburgh is the closest thing to an active dynasty in the NHL having won the 2016 and 2017 Stanley Cups before bowing out to the eventual champ Washington Capitals in the second round last year. Surely their high powered roster led by C Sidney Crosby (35g 65a 100pts), C Evegeni Malkin (21g 51a 72pts in 68 games), C Jake Guentzel (40g 36a 76 pts) and American hero RW Phil Kessel (27g 55a 82pts) would stomp out the hopes and dreams of this band of peasants whose leading scorer C Matthew Barzal only registered 62 pts this year.

What did happen: The glass slippers are very much still on and the Islanders used them to stomp all over Sidney Crosby’s face. Crosby, who scored 100 pts in the regular season, was a nonentity in the series notching only 1 assist and going -4 in the 4 game sweep. He wasn’t the only Penguin shutdown either as Islanders G Robin Lehner, castoff by the Buffalo Sabres prior to the season, was absolutely electric in the series (4-0 1.47 GAA .956 SV%). New York gave up a league low 196 goals in the regular season and Lehner with help from shutdown defenseman Ryan Pulock (22:55 min per game, 9 Blocked Shots) made sure that stinginess carried over to this series, frustrating the Penguins to no end.

Surprise factor: The shark eating Samuel L. Jackson in Deep Blue Sea. It was a sudden and jarring demise happening far sooner than any would have predicted for a major part of the narrative. Penguins goalie Matt Murray was not nearly as good (3.02 GAA .906 SV% in 4 losses) as he was in previous playoff runs (15-6 2.08 GAA .923 SV% in 2016 and 7-3 1.70 GAA .937 SV% in 2017) but more damning was the All-Star laden Pittsburgh offense only scoring 6 goals in 4 games. Look for the Islanders to continue to snuff out stars and grind out more low scoring wins as they continue their improbable run.

Washington Capitals (48-26-8) Carolina Hurricanes (46-29-7)

What I expected to happen: Something like THIS. A swift and decisive victory by a grizzled veteran over an in over his head youngster. The Hurricanes had missed the playoffs the previous 9 seasons. They are a team led by emerging young stars RW Sebastion Aho (30g 53a 83pts +25) and C Teuvo Teravainen (21g 55a 76pts +30) on offense and solid top 4 defensemen all 27 or younger. The Capitals are the defending Stanley Cup Champion with a veteran heavy roster led by arguably the greatest goal scorer in the history of the NHL in LW Alexander Ovechkin (51g 38a 89pts). After recovering from their drunken escapades of the offseason, they looked poised to make a run at repeating. Carolina looked to just be a minor inconvenience before their inevitable showdown with the juggernaut Lightning.

What happened: This “bunch of jerks” certainly lived up to their moniker as they put the finishing touches on tattering the Eastern Conference side of my bracket by pulling off a Game 7 double OT victory. Carolina D Jaccob Slavin was a dominate force in the series contributing 9 assists while playing a monster 26:59 per game. The Hurricanes got balanced scoring with 7 players scoring 2 or more goals in the series. RW Justin Williams furthered solidified his title as Mr. Game 7 assisting on Brock McGinn’s 2OT series winner and running his career record in Game 7’s to an inconceivable 8-1. On the Capitals side of things Ovechkin held up his end of the bargain putting up 9 pts (4g 5a) but the loss of gamebreaking C TJ Oshie to a broken collarbone in Game 4 helped swing the series to the scrappy underdogs.

Surprise Factor: Verbal Kint is Keyser Soze. What appeared to be a minor participant in the proceedings turned out to be a major power player. The Hurricanes were not satisfied with merely securing a playoff spot after their long drought but were here to make some noise. If they can continue to carry this momentum we may be seeing a lot more celebrations in the weeks to come.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

St. Louis Blues (45-28-9) Defeat Winnipeg Jets (47-30-5) 4-2

What I expected to happen: The high powered Jets coming off an appearance in last year’s Western Conference Finals would continue their assent to the upper echelon of the league. The Jets have one of the game’s elite playmakers in RW Blake Wheeler (20g 71a 91pts) and he set up 3 30+ goal scorers in C Mark Scheifele (38g 46a 84pts), LW Kyle Connor (34g 32a 66pts) and RW Patrik Laine (30g 20a 50pts). The Jets also boast the closest thing to a Hulk in the NHL in 6’5 260lbs D Dustin Byfuglien who was limited to 42 regular season games due to injury but still highly effective when healthy (4g 27a 31pts). The Blues meanwhile had been one of the worst teams in the league for the first half of the season firing their head coach Mike Yeo after 19 games. The Blues season turned on January 7th when the then 16-9-4 Blues gave G Jordan Binnington the starting nod. He proceeded to deliver a 25 save shutout win and hold down the starting job the rest of the season producing a 24-5-1 record with a miniscule 1.89 GAA and impressive .927 SV%. I assumed the Blues would regress closer to their mean level of play rather than continue their impossibly hot second half.

What did happen: The Blues carried their impossibly hot second half right into the postseason. They caught the Jets off guard to steal the first two games of the series in Winnipeg. The Jets would bounce back to take game 3 & 4 in St. Louis but their sacrifice of home ice advantage proved to be a fatal blow as the Blues finished them off in Game 6 in St. Louis. Binnington was not quite as good as he was in the regular season (4-2 2.63 GAA .908 SV%) but he was as good as he needed to be for St. Louis to secure 4 1-goal victories in a tightly contested series where both teams scored 16 goals apiece.

Surprise factor: Thanos snaps away half the Marvel Universe. Infinity Wars was filmed as the first half of a two parter so you knew there was going to be some sort of cliffhanger but you didn’t expect it to be so impactful and devastating. Likewise I assumed the Blues would give the Jets and their Avengers like stacked lineup some trouble but did not realize that Binnington does in fact keep the Infinity Gauntlet hidden underneath his blocker. I don’t think the Blues will be going to some serene farm planet to rest after this series either and will be eager to ash more teams’ Cup dreams.

Colorado Avalanche (38-30-14) Defeat Calgary Flames (50-25-7) 4-1

What I expected to happen: LW Johnny Gaudreau (36g 63a 99pts) to feast on Colorado’s defense like he does on ham and cheese sandwiches. The Gaudreau led flames finished second in the league with 289 goals and had 5 players score 70+ pts on the season. Colorado had sporadically average goaltending all season from its tandem of Semyon Varlamov (20-19-9 2.87 GAA .909 SV%) and Philipp Grubauer (18-9-5 2.64 GAA 9.17 SV%). It seemed like a recipe for an easy series for the #1 seed Flames.

What did happen: RW Nate Mackinnon and C Mikko Rantanen happened. Mackinnon scored 5 goals and added 4 assists in the 5 games series and generally dominated play any time he was on the ice. Rantanen missed the last 8 games of the season with a midsection injury (the NHL injury report has a toddler’s body part specificity) but returned with 8 pts in the series (3g 5a) to show why Colorado was one of the hottest teams to start the season. It didn’t hurt that Grubauer also stepped up his game in a big way taking the reins in net for all 5 games and posting an impressive 1.90 GAA and .939 SV%. For the Flames, Gaudreau was abysmal scoring no goals and only getting 1 assist while going -2 in the series. The rest of the offense wasn’t much better as LW Matthew Tkachuk was the only Flames forward that managed to score multiple goals in the series, a whooping 2.

Surprise factor: Ed Norton and Brad Pitt were the same guy the whole time in Fight Club. The Avalanche turned out to be the dynamic offensive team that I thought the Flames would be outscoring Calgary 17-11 in the 5 game beatdown. On the flip side Calgary G Mike Smith put up the average numbers expected from the Colorado tandem (3.20 GAA .917 SV%). In this strangest of opening rounds we can’t totally rule out a Freaky Friday scenario having taken place between these rosters.

Dallas Stars (43-23-7) Defeat Nashville Predators (47-29-6) 4-2

What I expected: Nashville to continue to square off with the Jets for Central Division supremacy while the aged and cap crippled Blackhawks lay dormant. The Predators had a deep playoff experienced roster led by a strong backend where 6-time All-Star P.K Subban is the 4th best defenseman. They solidified their roster by acquiring the Minnesota Wild’s best offensive talent C Mikael Granlund (16g 38a 54 pts) at the deadline. Midway through the season Stars team CEO Jim Lites had referred to the teams two best players C Tyler Seguin (33g 40a 80pts) and LW Jamie Benn (27g 26a 53pts) as “fucking horseshit” so I just assumed that was still the case.

What happened: Dallas goalie Ben Bishop happened. After putting up career best numbers in the regular season (27-15-2 1.98 GAA league leading .934 SV%), Bishop was even better over the 6 games against Nashville posting a 1.90 GAA and .945 SV% all while facing 36 shots per game. On the Predators side G Pekka Rinne continued his recent postseason struggles posting subpar 3.09 GAA and .905 SV% overall and got pulled after giving up 4 goals on 8 shots in a crucial Game 4 loss. Full disclosure I also did not keep up on the Predators at the end of the year so I had not realize Granlund had only 5 pts with them in 16 games so him contributing a measily 2 pts in the series checks out but had to have hurt them. It certainly didn’t help that the Preds other big trade acquisition, rough and tumble spark plug RW Wayne Simmonds, went down early in Game 2 with a lower body injury and did not return to the series.

Surprise factor: Wolverine dying at the end of Logan. A changing of the guard you knew was gonna happen eventually but thought maybe they could push off a bit longer. Nashville made at least the second round of the playoffs each of the last three seasons including a finals appearance in 2017. This team in its current configuration looks to be played out. The Stars however look like they could make some noise in a now wide open West with both of their horseshit player contributing 6 points in the opening series.

San Jose Sharks (46-27-9) Defeat Vegas Golden Knights (43-32-7) 4-3

What I expected to happen: C Joe Thornton and his 1478 career points get an Ovechkin style vindication tour through the playoffs. After Ovechkin won the Cup last season Jumbo Joe was slotted in as the most accomplished star yet to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup. Like the Capitals previously, the Sharks have a reputation of getting things done in the regular season (made the playoffs 14 of the last 15 seasons) but choking in the playoffs (only one appearance in the Finals, a 2016 loss to the Penguins). The Sharks added an elite scoring and 2-time Norris Trophy winning defenseman in Erik Karlsson (3g 42a 45pts) prior to the season to help finally push them over the top. Paired with D Brent Burns (16g 67a 83pts) Karlsson gives San Jose one of the most dangerous blue lines in all of hockey. The Knights had made a shocking run to the Stanley Cup Finals last year in their first season of existence so I felt like they had used up their mojo already.

What did happen: I got a series right! But even the series I predicted the outcome of correctly had madness within. RW Mark Stone provided exactly what Vegas traded for at the deadline contributing 6 goals and 6 assists for a staggering 12 pts in the 7 game series. His scoring along with 11pts from offseason addition LW Max Pacioretty helped pace the Knights to both a 3-1 series lead and a 3-0 lead in Game 7. The Sharks marquee acquisition Karlsson certainly held up his end of the bargain as well racking up 9 assists in the 7 game series. He proved a crucial piece of the powerplay unit that scored 4 goals following a controversial 3rd period 5 minute penalty call that turned the tide of Game 7. A fitting cap to the unpredictability of the entire first round was Sharks 4th liner RW Barclay Goodrow, who had only played 7 min in the entire game, scoring the series clinching OT Goal.

Surprise Factor: Jon Snow comes back from the dead. As mentioned, despite falling behind 3-1 in the series and finding themselves down 3-0 in Game 7 the Sharks also refused to stay dead. San Jose’s G Martin Jones was similarly pronounced dead after a dire regular season (2.94 GAA .896 SV%) and absolutely horrendous to start the series that saw him getting pulled in both Game 2 and 4. But as Thrones watchers know, “What is dead may never die” and sure enough Jones came up huge to stop 58 of 59 shots in a crucial Game 6 2OT win. The Sharks will take their battle scars onto the next round in their continued quest to take their rightful place on the throne.

Here are my predictions for what happens next round should you need to know what isn’t going to happen:

EASTERN

Blue Jackets over Bruins

Islanders over Hurricanes

WESTERN

Sharks over Avalanche

Blues over Stars